American workers tightening screws? Apple iPhone made in America might be pure fantasy.
Whether tariff hikes have truly driven the reshoring of manufacturing to the United States and brought Americans back to factories for low-end production requires an analysis of real-world data and economic logic from multiple dimensions. Below is an objective overview of key facts:
1. The Limited Nature of Manufacturing Reshoring
Short-Term Data Fluctuations
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on China in 2018, U.S. manufacturing value-added saw a brief increase in 2018–2019 (with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2%). However, this growth rate was not significantly superior to that of the recovery period in 2010–2014 (3.5% average annual growth). Moreover, it declined again after 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic and supply chain disruptions.
Long-Term Trends Unreversed
The share of U.S. manufacturing employment has continued to decline from 13% in 2000 to 8.3% in 2023, and tariff policies have not reversed this trend. Most reshoring enterprises are capital-intensive (e.g., semiconductors, chemicals), rather than labor-intensive "screw-tightening" jobs.
Case Studies
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Apple invested in manufacturing high-end Mac Pros in Texas, but it still relies heavily on imported key components, creating fewer than 500 local jobs.
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Ford moved part of its electric vehicle production back to the U.S., but the automation rate exceeds 70%, far higher than that of traditional assembly lines.
2. Structural Contradictions in the Labor Market
Mismatched Employment Willingness
Although the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.5% in 2023, the job vacancy rate in the manufacturing sector has long been above 4% (U.S. Department of Labor data), indicating that workers are unwilling to take factory jobs. Low-wage assembly line positions (with an hourly wage of
20) are far less attractive than service sector jobs (e.g., logistics and retail, which offer similar hourly wages and better working conditions).
Skill Gaps
A 2022 report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) pointed out that the shortage of senior technicians in the U.S. manufacturing sector reached 2.2 million. Meanwhile, low-end jobs have decreased due to automation, leading to "employment hollowing-out."
3. Tariff Cost Shifting and Industrial Substitution
Consumers and Enterprises Bear the Cost
Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that 90% of the costs of tariff hikes are borne by U.S. importers, which are ultimately passed on to consumers in the form of higher commodity prices. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated in 2019 that tariffs cost U.S. households an additional $1,277 per year on average.
Supply Chain Adjustment Rather Than Reshoring
Most enterprises have chosen to shift production capacity to third countries such as Vietnam and
